Brief on COP29 and the GoNaturePositive! agenda
16/12/2024, an article by IKED.
In this note, we initially reflect on the overarching outcomes of COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, November 12-24, 2024. This is followed by observations on developments, lessons, and outcomes of specific relevance to GoNaturePositive! We also take note of some specific contributions by IKED in the capacity of contributing organisation to the preparations of COP29 as part of two preparatory events arranged by the host country in advance of the event itself. IKED’s participation at COP29 was arranged on the special invitation of the hosting country.
The big picture – Climate finance in focus!
The main outcome of the Climate Negotiations was sealed by the participating countries on November 24 after two weeks of tireless and partly dramatic exchanges and negotiations. In the end, a “New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance” (NCQG) was agreed, potentially setting the scene for various kinds of concrete follow-through during the next decade.
The outcome essentially amounts to the developed countries assuming the lead in mobilising at least $300 billion annually as a contribution to the efforts of developing countries, as part of a wider objective to engage all relevant actor categories, such as the private sector, to scale up financing to developing countries in this context to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035.
A hard-fought compromise
The agreed amount represented a significant scale-back compared to the levels that had been considered necessary and expected by many parties at the outset of the negotiations. A common pledge among scientists and multilateral organisations had rather parked in the range of $900-1000 billion from 2025, reaching some $1.5 trillion by 2030.
To place the agreed amounts in perspective, fossil fuel subsidies across developed countries in 2022 amounted to an estimated 3.6% of their aggregate GDP, while a target of $300 billion in comparison amounts to less than half a percent. At one point during the negotiations, representatives for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) walked out, dismissing an offer of $250bn from developed countries to tackle climate change. The African group of countries also rejected the offer. Despair over the down-scaled ambitions blended with backlashes in other areas, such as ambitions to cut back on fossil fuel dependency in energy systems.
As another twist, in contrast to the previous $100 billion specific mandate for contributions by the developed countries, this new goal merely commits them to take the lead. Furthermore, considering inflation since the 2009 goal and the new flows counting towards this target, the numerical tripling of the previous ambitions is by some suspected to result in less than a watering down of what had previously been agreed.
This is particularly the case as the past period has been marked by significant mishaps among many when it comes to delivering on what had been promised, now to be followed by formulations that make it more difficult to enforce delivery.
Upgraded attention to the quality of finance
Although the stipulated amount represented a disappoint to many in quantitative terms, the upgrading that was concluded arguably reached the limit for what could politically could be assimilated by the parties at the present time. In effect, the outcome offers a widened scope for tangible resource transfers in support of more collaborative and equitable efforts to deal with the climate change agenda.
Rather than the precise amount, the critical issues at the end of the day may have less to do with the precise amounts pledged, or even disbursed, but more about how resources are transferred, for what purposes, and to what effect.
Tangible progress was in fact achieved when it comes to ensuring transparency and access, recognising the challenges confronting developing countries including debt distress and the cost of capital, the need to embed climate action with strategies to combat poverty and underdevelopment, and also when it comes to engaging financial institutions and the private sector to play their part.
Having said that, there was no consensus or conclusion on the terms of which investment are to be provided, such as, the degree to which transfers will be on concessional terms, by way of loans or grants, or link to a resolution of the outstanding challenges related to the prevailing indebtedness of many countries around the world. This is particularly serious at a time of severe stand-off between notably the US and western countries on the one hand, and China on the other hand, on the processes of effectuating debt relief, which has rendered the IMF and the Club of Paris increasingly ineffective in pursuing debt relief.
A significant effort was made to improve market mechanisms surrounding carbon emissions reductions, notably so-called carbon credits, and to arrive at more clear terms for the offsetting of emission reductions by some against the emissions of others. This is particularly important at a time when the reliability and policy commitment of the United States government and also some other governments is in serious doubt, placing high emphasis on the need for market forces to strengthen in support of sustainability. The significance of what has been agreed in this area remains to be seen, however.
GoNaturePositive! at COP29
The EU research and innovation horizon agendas was not quite present as such at COP29, reflecting a diffuse presence by EU institutions more generally. While an EU pavilion did feature among others within the extensive blue zone landscape at the core of the event, hardly any activities were hosted there. Visitors were merely in the position to view some rolling video shows or access some quiet space suitable for a private conversation or enjoying a brief break from surrounding noisy areas.
Visitors at the EU Pavilion, the Blue Zone, COP29
GoNaturePositive! was represented at COP29 by IKED, which had been invited by the host country to take part in participatory events hosted by the ADA Academy, the main scientific partner of COP29, as has been reported separately.
On various occasions throughout COP29, IKED called attention to the importance of reconciling economic growth with nature, i.e. to work out a strategy of shifting the fundamentals of economic growth so as a to become congenial to valuing and nurturing and long term benefits of nature, while putting the brakes on short-term exploitation. This entails defeating short-term vested interested in defence of the public good. Of high importance is the need of working out more effective ways of aligning conflicting interests in support of improved collaboration to catalyse and leverage strategic leadership in support of transformational change.
Display of events and initiatives
These perspectives were advanced by IKED in relation to the following activities at COP29:
The advancement of Nature-based Solutions (NBS) in the context of urban development, making use of smart city solutions to innovate in realising constructive local community engagement and co-creation. These aspects were introduced and discussed in a panel hosted by the Cryosphere Pavilion.
Panelists at the Cryosphere Pavilion, Blue Zone, COP29.
Working out novel means to support improved land use management while resolving outstanding critical issues at local level, as in the case of healing wounds of past conflict or addressing uneven or unfair property rights. Azerbaijan presents stark examples of war-torn regions, plagued by hardships such as a remaining presence of deadly mines, which formed part of the context for a panel on this topic arranged by the International Eurasia Press Fund.
Presentation on NPE, IKED on behalf of GoNaturePositive! Panel organised by the International Eurasia Press, Green Zone, COP29.
Elsewhere, IKED presented experience of using water-saving plantation technologies invented in the Netherlands, suited for plantation in dry regions. By mimicking nature, this approach stimulates plants to develop healthy root systems, which is particularly effective for native species which know best how to economise water. This particular NbS has been applied in URBiNAT, an EU-funded Horizon research and innovation project, and also in a series of plantation activities across the Middle East, Latin America, and elsewhere. Despite the benefits, the recovery of lost lands and water savings remain sadly undervalued, putting up formidable barriers to scaling such solutions.
Presentation on NBS, plantations with Watersaving technologies, in the Silkway Pavilion, Green Zone, COP29.
Deliberations Non transport, mobility and climate mitigation, featuring strategy discussion ways forward to support smart initiatives addressing hot-spots of heat-generating activities, e.g., in the aviation sector. Resolving these problems is not just a matter of piecemeal steps assumed by individual countries, airports, airlines, or in the training of pilots, but requires international coordination spanning all those domains. While this does not occur spontaneously, opportunities for initiatives such as those made possible by GoNaturePositive! were ventured into.
In the context of energy transition, avenues for speeding transition towards renewable energy were linked to the importance of addressing the bottlenecks to electrification. The latter focus attention on the importance of improved coordination of infrastructure and technology development to match increased dependency on renewables with improved energy storage and grid functionality, both of which remain troubled by both government regulation and market distortions throughout much of the world.
In sessions on climate finance, focus was placed on requirements for shifting from today’s disclosure-oriented strategy for invoking enhanced private sector engagement, to nailing down hard terms for impact investment backed by solid verification mechanisms and improved mechanisms for rewarding frontrunners, as well as for punishing laggards/greenwashing.
Advances were made on a specific outcome-focused research cooperation, of high relevance to the Caspian Sea, which is a tipping point in regard to irreversible damage caused by climate stress. The set-up of a new centre, to be taken forward under the leadership of the ADA-Academy with international partners, was deliberated and inaugurated at COP29. The plan is to unleash a series of collaborative efforts to highlight and work out countermeasures to the ongoing degradation of the Caspian Sea, while exchanging experience with similar work on other water systems.
Upgraded attention to the quality of finance
Related to the last theme above, a track of activities advanced by IKED since several years, including at the Multistakeholder Forum in Davos, January 2023, made progress at COP29. The objective here is to pave the way for novel financial vehicles to bypass today’s financial intermediaries, which are clogging the interface between investors willing to support impact investment, and projects on the ground capable of delivering impact. In a sense, the scheme under development aims to introduce an empowering channel for resource contributions, directly benefitting small scale projects with a proven ability to realise tangible and verifiable contributions to sustainability, on terms suited to realise genuine impacts in line with the aspirations of contributors.
In this case, projects are not required to devote time and effort to prepare and manage repayment of resources obtained. Their focus can solely be directed to ensuring that resources are directed to where they are most needed and that tangible impacts are generated, validated, and trusted.
The arguments behind such a scheme and the plans to work out a way towards implementation have resonated with strong partner organisations. At COP29, IKED signed an MoU for mutual collaboration with the West African Development Bank, in support of this agenda.
Singing of MoU between IKED and West African Development Bank
GoNaturePositive! in the context of COPs going forward
At the end of the day, COP29 in Baku needs to be viewed in the context of the present frustrated search of means and ways of working out viable avenues for the next stage of international negotiations how to achieve tangible collaboration in support of sustainability. The conference took place at a time of unpleasant news in regard to the prospect of aiding humanity’s failure to agree on effective playing rules for this to happen. On the one end, scientists report on increasingly gruesome consequences for the world’s climate and living ecosystems from our joint failure to act on the real issues. On the other hand, the ferocity and madness of so-called “climate scepticism” is about to reach new hights, with populist, self-centred leaders making headways in major capitals.
Next, the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T” aims to enable the COP 29 and 30 Presidencies, Azerbaijan and Brazil, work together through 2025 to present a menu of options at COP 30 to take next steps. Additionally, coordination is meant to be arranged with the outcomes of COP15 on biodiversity, which took place in Cartagena in October 2024.
Hopes have tempered somewhat but are still alive that improved coordination of the so far mostly separated agendas of addressing climate change and the biodiversity crisis. Such coordination is required to enable the amount of resources actually mobilised to be dedicated more effectively. There is also the need of strengthened mechanisms in support of technical progress and innovation, which requires much more active engagement by the private sector as well as other major stakeholder categories.
The challenges at hand cannot be addressed effectively unless:
The private sector, including business and the financial sector, assumes a greater role, where market forces attain much sharper rewards for contributions to sustainability of the potential contributions of technology and innovation can be realised
Public support and engagement can be increased, entailing a sense of responsibility as well as empowerment among citizens broadly can be enacted, requiring new strategies to counter disinformation, greenwashing and populism
Greater consistency and synergy is required in tackling the major issues threating sustainability, spanning climate change, biodiversity loss, management of land and water resources
An improved context can be achieved for community support and development, including the rights of indigenous peoples who stand on the fence to defend what remains of our collective natural heritage, as well as broad-based improvement in education, health, job creation and the conditions for entrepreneurship facing the still rapidly expanding young population of developing countries.
